Pacto Social in Danger # 1: Moyano

Yesterday. a warning was made to our new elected president. For whoever thought that this country and signing a Social Pact to appease the business community and the trade-unions, Monday November 12th marked the end of that belief as something easily achievable.

An interesting law was being discussed yesterday; one about a scoring system - much like there are in more civilized, developed and organized countries - whereby through a credit system you score "negative points" each time you make a serious traffic offense. Since the elimination of petty offenses from the code, this should have been a very quiet matter. It wasn't.

Transport trade unions - cabs, truckers and bus-drivers - apparently tried to enter Congress and show our lawmaker's what they would do about this matter, which they suddenly and after months of lobbying, all of a sudden rejected. As they took matter into their hands, policemen reacted - some more forcefully than others - and it turned quickly into an all-out battle between union workers and cops.

The visible result: lots of flying rocks, more than 40 wounded - more cops than workers let it be said - and one cop separated from the force due to a movie depicting an "excessive use of force"against a manifester.

The aftermath: Moyano threatened to pull a full-blown transport strike as a result of the "clash" between unionists and policemen. Kirchner blew a fuse and apparently had a very tough conversation with Moyano, who withdrew the strike but is now being planned for November 29th, it seems. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner did not intervene (as was expected, since she has not assumed her presidential duties yet).

The invisible result: Moyano is pushing the envelope trying to understand his limits - he has amassed a large amount of power and is seeking to understand where and when it is best deployed. If such a reaction happened after such a small conflict, one can only imagine the negotiating style that will accompany multi-year salary negotiations. Cristina is in for a big surprise if she expects Moyano to be tamed after her husband's first term.

God help us. We need all the help we can get.

Sunday Headline News in Argentina: November 11th, 2007

And we're at the start of another interesting week in Argentina ... October was quite calm due to the elections, but November seems to be back with a vengeance! There are not only local problems (inflation, insecurity, protests), there is also conflict on the international front. As long as commodities keep high prices, the K Government will be happy and collecting billions of dollars more from export taxes ...

This weekend the top news spot was captured by International News this weekend - both showcasing Spain: while La Nación dealt with the sour exchange between Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Spain's Rey Juan Carlos. While Spain's PM Zapatero was giving his speech, he was rudely interrupted by Chavez who meant to attack Jose María Aznar, the former PM. The King defended Aznar by telling Chavez to shut up, and left the conference room after the shouting contest.

Clarín chooses to go back to the paper-mill dispute between Argentina and Uruguay, and states that Spain wants both countries to re-ignite settlement talks. Not only did they not do so, but Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez went as far as to shut down the frontier at Gualeguaychu to prevent any Argentine attack on Botnia's recently-turned-operational mill. This conflict, which was 2006's top news, seems to want to carry itself over into 2008. By the lack of progress around it, it most certainly will be around for New Years'.

Secondary news at both papers were just that: secondary. La Nación had as second important story Clarin's first, and Clarin had La Nacion's first as second, so that made an interesting role-switching exercise. At La Nación, other news were about panic rooms, the local rugby championship and the Colón Theater's restoration. Clarín has many small side stories: the main ones are about the actual Economy Minister, who will apparently not be part of Cristina's cabinet, and a local druglord's confession, as well as Seferino Namuncurá's beatification process and soccer violence.

The summary of today's papers would be: if the Spanish fight that much, ¿how can you expect the apple (us Argentineans) to fall far from the tree? And don't get me into our Italian heritage ...

Sunday Headline News in Argentina: November 4th, 2007 - One Week with Madame President

Madame President has been elected for exactly a week today, and already she has shown how intelligent and wily she can be: she held several interviews with a wide array of reporters - almost all one-on-ones - and even with reporters she very recently criticized for being "opinionated" and reporting with a bias (La Nación Joaquin Morales Solá). She held her ground with most of them, although once or twice she showed her claws: when being asked why she dressed up, she answered "Do you want me to dress as if I were poor?" (btw, her husbands wealth declaration says he has approx. U$S 2 million in the bank plus 28 pieces of real estate ... not bad for a president), and when Marcelo Bonelli asked her about her relationship with the press she "told him off" like a first grade teacher to her student. We have four very interesting years ahead of us.

As for the papers today, they shared the main news as political: La Nación highlighted some newly-elected faces from the Province of Buenos Aires, and Clarín showcased a potential conflict between Carrió and Macri over the leadership of the opposition to the newly-elected President.

The truth is that, although both share the strong opposition to the leading party, their approaches and ideas today are quite
different and show significant gaps - which some consider unsurmountable. Be as it may, Macri will be leading the destinies of the district where Carrió won in last Sunday's presidential election, so the people who elected Macri must see something in Carrió and vice versa. This should help bridge some of the gaps in the not too distant future.

As for the other news, both papers showed Boca Juniors' victory over Racing Club on saturday, and while La Nación mentioned also the growing consumption of drugs and an incipient corruption scandal involving the Secretary of Transport; while Clarín settles for the Boca Juniors' victory and with an optimisting comment from Spain's Zapatero saying how Argentina is reaching the end of its nightmare ... for this week, enough said!

Sunday Headline News in Argentina: Election Day (October 28th, 2007)

The day finally arrived, and the much anticipated (by approximately 9 political pollsters and by our own Observador de Medios media verdict @ http://observador-de-medios.blogspot.com ) victory of the First Lady has come true: we are minutes away from the announcement that Argentina has its first woman president, without second round.

The latest data says she obtained approximately 45% of votes, a 20pt gap against her closer adversary, multi-faceted Lilita Carrió or ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, well above Rodriguez Sáa, Sobisch and Lopez Murphy. The leading Frente Para la Victoria party apparently has also won the governor election for the Province of Buenos Aires (the largest in the country, with 10 million voters) with an outstanding victory from vice-president Daniel Scioli.

The papers today already clearly stated that the best hope for the opposition was to reach a second round: while La Nación drily said that today Kirchner's successor would be chosen, and Clarín openly stated that at best, the opposition could hope for a ballotage, apparently discounting the leading party's victory.

The other news are mainyl sports - as is typical in weekends: La Nación chose the local rugby tournament and Clarín chose Carlitos Tevez's excellent performance in the Manchester United victory yesterday in the Premier League.

The truth of the matter is that the opposition has let this opportunity slip through their fingers: their unwillingness to unite - maybe to avoid the 1999 to 2001 Alianza scandal, too fresh in people's minds - and to bridge the gap between their differing ideas strengthened Cristina Kirchner. Besides the good economic momentum - much like 2003 but with weaker growth perspectives and many more problems in the horizon - the Kirchner couple was consistent and worked around their weaknesses, while managing to avoid getting too burnt with the corruption scandals (Skanska, Antonini Wilson, Indec, etc.).

Argentina hails its new president. The oppostion has 4 more years to get their act together if we are ever to reach a system of "alternating" parties, like other developed countries. Until then, we will resemble more a monarchy than a republic; autocratic rather than democratic. Let's hope we are wrong, and let's hope our newly-elected president will begin solving the real issues for the people - now that, for the first time ever, she can't blame her predecessor.

Elections 2007: No Surprises Needed or Wanted

Elections are upon us once again. Last time around, we saw the unexpected happen: Carlos Menem, president for 2 terms, ran for office, won in the first round, and as polls called him a loser on the ballotage, for the first time in history, the front runner pulled out of the race. Néstor Kirchner became president with 22% of votes ...

This time around, it appears there is little room for the unexpected. Little room, I say, because Kirchner will most probably be handing over the reigns of the kingdom to his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. She is a senator but has lived the life of a president - or more - during her campaign, travelling all over the world, shying away from the real topics of interest and spreading much needed warmth towards the international community and investors. She has shown much disregard for the internal problems and has minimized critical issues (official statistics mishandling, recurring energu crises, lack of FDI, etc.)

Will it be enough for her to wind? No one cares. She and her husband have done far more than the opposing parties, who faced somewhat of a paradox. Alone, no one candidate can dispute a strong second position and pray for a second round; and together, they all ran the risk of repeating - at least in the voters' minds - past-alliances' mistakes and dilapitading all of their political capital in one swift move. So, the only chance to aim for a ballotage was doomed because the same rationale was applied in 1999 for De La Rúa and the Alianza, and it ended in the
2001/2002 implosion. And running alone assured failure.

Is there room for a grand gesture on behalf of a candidate to try to re-build bridges and consolidate a 30% + vote percentage to force a second round? It seems not. The enormous ethical/moral grandstand that some candidates have adopted definitely leaves little space for bridge-building. In fact, some candidates are so keen on getting their way that they do not realize they might jeopardize the greater good in so doing.

What now? The answer comes from the same place it has for he past 21 years for out soccer fanaticismo: we get to wait four more years - and pray we can save ourselves so we don't need a Maradona doing our dirty work and generating a false sense of supremacy.

Reappearing ... with Blog Action Day!

Please watch Blog Action Day Video:



It's about time someone in Argentina seriously started considering the environment. This DOES NOT MEAN just saying no to the paper-mills in Uruguay or boycotting Botnia. This means caring about the environment as a cause, and not as a way to be seen as powerful among neighboring countries. How much attention has been given locally to environmental issues? Very little. A couple of front page articles about a "disappearing lake" in Argentina/Chile, and lots of news about the bad weather in the City and its consequences for the people ... but barely anything generating awareness about the real thing.

What can we do?

For starters, if we really do care about the environment, we should let an environmental agency propose a solution to the paper-mill conflict with Uruguay. If the problem does not have to do with the environment, then it is political, and if it is political, people should know.

Then, we can maybe start adopting laws (although these are more rare than Presidential decrees in Argentina) favoring companies who do care and take assertive action about the environment. Another variation of this would be actually carrying out current laws - for example those limiting pollution by buses, which is absolutely unbelievable to anyone walking around Buenos Aires' avenues.

On a third instance, we could offer entrepreneurs more favorable conditions (i.e., -4%) for green entrepreneurs, i.e., those who start a company complying with regulations.

That could be a good start. Let's join in. This is Blog Action Day.

How to turn a 25 minute ride into 105 minutes of suffering

Another first-hand account. Unbelievable by any measure. Unjustifiable by any means. Argentina, reality or fiction?

Friday morning, I left a bit latish on the way to work. By now, I now traffic (knew, actually) like the back of my hand. Takes me no more than 25-30 minutes to get to the office, and I squeeze as much as I possibly can of sleeping time before taking off. Anyhow, I was 75% there, when I reach the 9th of July Avenue - apparrently one of the longest and thickest of the world - and I see an unnatural amount of traffics. Cars were piling up for what seemed like forever.

However, this traffic jam was impossible to corroborate: I could only see 3 or 4 cars ahead and the morning radio shows were busy not saying anything. What was supposed to take 5 minutes finally took 90 minutes, at a rate of 5-7 minutes per block. By now, you are probably asking yourself what happened - and you are correct. Usually, at times like this, I expect the ambulance beeping past cars in an effort to get to the collision zone. This was not the case. No ambulance, no fire department, no police. Just cars. What can it be? As I grew close, so did the intrigue, since there was no explanation popping up amidst the traffic.

I was only a block away from the Obelisco when it hit me: it can't be, was my initial reaction. But it was, alas, it was. As a way to commemorate the 100th (or 110th) anniversay of Argentina-Germany relationships, a few bright German companies (Osram, Allianz, etc.), sponsored by the lovely and considerate Buenos Aires government, decided to put up a concert stage IN THE MIDDLE OF ONE OF THE MAIN ARTERIES IN BUENOS AIRES (the Corrientes Avenue in the 9th of July). The traffic jam happened because cars could turn at approx. 1/5 of original capacity, meaning that a 15 minute ride could at the very least that 5 x as much.

During that day (the first day of Spring, a no-shool day) 3 second-rate models distributed condoms (german condoms?) to innocent bypassers who were starting Spring on a happy note. My beginning of Spring was miserable, thanks to German companies and a Government who sincerely does not care about its people. There was no way anyone with half a brain could ignore the impact of setting up the stage where it was. Now again, 50% of a brain is a lot to ask for ... even in a fictional Argentina!!!

Sunday Headline News in Argentina (September 23rd, 2007)

Politics is slowly creeping upon us all ... however, slowly is the key concept here. A month away from the general elections, Sunday papers - by far the most read of the week - still remain silent regarding the candidates and the elections overall. La Nación, as can be expected, makes some noise regarding campaign finance, but does not scream out foul or give out any names when you look at the big picture. Clarín looks the other way regarding local politics. Here it is, in more detail:

La Nación, as we mentioned some lines ago, has taken a mild swing at the leading Frente para la Victoria party by - in a very subtle manner - making accusations of using public spending money to finance campaigns. In fact, it should surpise noone by now that Cristina Kirchner, the president's wife and presidential candidate for October, has been travelling on our dime since the beginning of the year, and more than making concrete progress on any topic whatsoever, has looked for camera flashes to prove to everyone she (much more than her husband) can properly interact with international leaders.

So, more than anything, La Nación chose to highlight that particular issue, without putting any particular blame on anyone. On a sencond note, the typical sports news goes to the Argentinean Rugby Team, still advancing in the World Cup after beating Namibia 63 to 3. This paper's third piece of news details something which we started mentioning on August 22nd - the grueling task of carrying out any documentation request / change in a state dependency. It might take hours and you may not even do what you set out to do. There have been steps taken to solve this: to do certain requests in Buenos Aires' civil registration courts, you need to reserve a time-slot and date on the internet ... which I have done, just so we can have material for this blog :-)

Clarín went down another path. Instead of local politics, they decided to go for the big one: The Islas Malvinas (Falkland Islands, for those of you who are Brits) and the English's pretense to enlarge the fishing exclusion zone around the much-controverted Islands (to those of you whose Argentinean history might be a bit loose, the last Argentinean military junta decided to go to war against England over ownership of the Malvinas ... and lost a humiliating and demeaning war 25 years ago). The way the world works nowadays, however, should see this particular dispute being settled behind the bureaucrats' desks instead of in the battlefield.

The second note is the same as La Nación: The much appraised Pumas. On a third and smaller note, President Kirchner is cited as having said that Iran must go to Justice over the AMIA bombing (during the 90's, hundreds of Jews were killed in a department city bombing using a van with large amounts of explosives - if memory serves me well). As Kirchner moves to and from Chavez and to and from the US, this type of issues gains extraordinary importance in determining Argentina's role in Latin America (as Chavez friend or international community ally) and the tone is set for the soon-to-be-elected government.

I will pray for more politics next week - until then, 'nuff said!

Sunday Headline News (September 16th, 2007)

Surprisingly enough, although general elections are 40 days away, there was barely any talk this Sunday of politics. Both La Nación and Clarín focused their attention on the one topic that can affect any President's well-being in Argentina: inflation. Price increases have in the past been the Achilles' heel of many presidents, and should not be overlooked as a potential make-or-break issue. This past week Martín Redrado, President of the Central Bank, mentioned in a meeting that he has "deeply worried" about inflation. This stirred quite a reaction on the President, who reprimanded him and asked him to clarify his comment. The obedient Redrado did as asked and he said "he meant he was as worried as any other CB President is about inflation" ...

La Nación chose to emphasize the interest rate increases that have taken place during the last few months (approx. +4/7%) and that makes mortgage lending an impossible activity - 10 year fixed rates jumped to approx. 17% per annum. The way the wording is built, it is meant to directly affect consumption also (adding to the inflation and making credit less available), which is the opposite of what society needs to continue stimulating private demand.

Side notes are related to sports and general news - the sports relates to the great Independiente, beating Colón de Santa Fé to reach the first standing in the Argentinean Apertura 2007 championship (until Boca also won and tied first standing). The piece of general news relates to how useful cell phones are to people (more than PCs, it appears according to a poll) and why teens go to see the doctor. Apparently, Sunday papers are running out of intersting things to say ... on to Clarín ...

Clarín decided to also showcase inflation, but on a very different note: how price increases also affect the Government's purchasing activities. If you ask me, it seems like somethig quite irrelevant to point out, since there's absolutely nothing people can do to avoid that - and taxes are not going down anytime soon, so the real question is: who cares and, even if we do, what can we do about it?

Clarín's typical sports news showcased Independiente's victory over Colón also; showing a picture of the championship's capo cannonieri, Germán Denis, with 11 goals in 9 games.

As for side notes, they were quite irrelevant also: a short policital note about politics in Argentina (oh, that reminds me and all teh readers that general elections are less than 45 days away!): all presidential candidates were elected without primaries - an astounding fact for US citizens, maybe, very used to primaries, but not for Argentineans.

The last note talks about the average argentinean: young and with a high school diploma. At the same time, as someone in the Media Observatory presentation last Thursday pointed out, they might have described their audience.

I promise I'll do next newscast sooner!

Kirchner minus 45

President Kirchner has less than 45 days left as our President. He has been the most favored president in the last 50 years, benefitting from absolutely optimal external conditions. He has managed, of course, to convince everyone that his wonderful administration skills were responsible for his success, not at all helped by factors over which he has no control.

He has spent the past few months boosting people's disposable income and he has governed by decrees as opposed to passing actual laws (executive decrees need to be ratified by Congress ex-post). He has done as he pleased and he has had four very belligerant years, picking fights against corporations, the military, Uruguay, the U.S.A., economists, the press, political opposition, the Church, etc. and not made many friends (Castro? Chavez?).

It seems very bizarre that a president voted by 22% of the people, who lost the first round to ex-president Menem, has amassed such a large amount of power. However, he has not looked to build beyond the short-term. His nearsightedness will have cost him and his successor a lot: not only have institutions not been built during his term, but they have been destroyed. For isntance, the National Statistics bureau (INDEC, see picture below), has been totally disacredited - even to trade-unionists - as presenting indicators which are plain false. His willingness to control statistics - because he lacked understanding of how to do things to affect reality instead of its measurements - shows to what extent he has failed. The very organism that should be portraying his success is put in doubt because of his attempts to look good. The biggest irony is that, in the end, no one really knows whether he was good or not, because he manipulated the entity which was in charge of doing so ...

Regardless, we will see if in 45 days, when he will leave (his wife in) power, what his real legacy, if any at all, was.

Trade-Unions & Power

Power corrupts. Ever since the return of a more "populist" style of presidency, trade-unions have been accumulating more and more power. It is, after all, one of the most direct ways for a president to make many workers happy at once. Whenever the balance of power in Argentina shifted towards the workers (usually, in presence of leftish governments), trade-union leaders have risen to the occasion and tried to snatch whatever power was available.

Inflation has added volatility to the alreadty turbulent environment created by a messy devaluation. It was the "asymetric" devaluation, unfair to most people and favorable to few, that validated the society's right to complain. The 2001-2002 cacerolazos were the result of many years of silence and economic recession, added to the restraints on money availability and ultimately confiscation of deposits (2,014 such manifestations between Dec '01 and March '02, as reported by Rosendo Fraga in www.nuevamayoria.com). But, as external favorable conditions became the wind beneath the economy's wings, and as opportune fiscal decisions taxed exports and restored fiscal health, the middle class returned silently to work.

Who remained behind? 3 groups mainly: the cartoneros, usually poor people picking up paper and cardboard and becoming part of the recycling chain; the piqueteros, a more extreme group of chronically-unemployed and semi-anarquists demanding state subsidies and usually unwilling to work, and a third group which appeared as the piqueteros lost their initial charme: trade unions. A more careful analysis might lead us to understand that trade-unions might well be ex-piqueteros or cartoneros, who now found a job and a new raison-d'etre. Others might have been there all along, waiting for the chance to re-claim the streets. However it may be, the truth of the matter is that 2005 saw more than 800 trade-union related claims, and 2006 close to 500. 90% of public manifestations cutting off roads came from groups other than piqueteros, who used to have monopoly of road-blocks.

The peso's devaluation and rising inflation gave unions the reasons they needed to make demands: workers need to recover purchasing power. In other words, we want increases above and beyond official inflation. This certainly created a problem for the government, also keen on keeping an eye on inflation in spite of its consumption-boosting, peso-flooding policies. As union leaders got closer to the government (Hugo Moyano, for instance, in photo below with President Kirchner), conflicts led to higher and more significant concessions in return for social peace. The government had promised business-owners that they would make money on larger quantities sold and not on higher prices, and having road-blocks and such certainly affected sales, so the government could not have that either. Also, as increases were negotiated with certain unions, others wanted the same or better conditions, which led to more manifestations. And, at the end of the day, white-collar workers alse needed rises to maintain basic relationships between white and blue collar salaries.

Companies are caught in the middle with higher labor costs and a rising demand for their products, at irrational prices sometimes. What to do? Increase prices, and face the government's anger (happened to Shell a few months ago). Do not increase prices and facec uneconomic results, even bankruptcy. The answer: a lot of creativity on behalf of businessmen and a lot of ingenuity from the government, thinking that they can fool all of the people all of the time.

Power corrupts. Inflation helps to create the proper conditions for strikes, road-blocks, public protest and ultimately corruption of the culture of hard work and sacrifice.

Sunday Headline News in Argentina (September 9th, 2007)

Unfortunately this was a busy, busy week where I was unable to post ... so here we are again with the Sunday newspaper report. Interesting weekend, this one, sort of showing society where the headlights will be pointed in the next weeks: the october presidential elections.

La Nación showcased the fact that there will be fourteen (14) presidential candidates for the people to choose from in October. This was known because during the week the official lists were closed and registered by the electoral authorities. Now, you might be asking yourself ... why fourteen candidates? True, most of them are minor candidates who won't reach even 1% of the votes. However, it comes to show just how disorganized the opposition is. There are at least three candidates who should be able to reach 10% of the votes: Lavagna (ex-Economy minister for Kirchner), Carrió (as always, going against the ruling party) and Lopez Murphy (timidly supported by Mauricio Macri, recently elected Mayor of Buenos Aires). All of these candidates together could stand a chance against Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the president's wife, first-lady, senator, and our official foreign representative (recently travelled on Argentina's dime to Brazil, France, Mexico, U.S.A., ...), who is supposed to reach any number above 30-35%.
Secondary news include the Argentinean rugby victory over France and the decrease in economic optimism, as well as the US workers' shorter holidays due to longer work weeks.

Clarín also started the week on a political note, although on a different tone: President Kirchner has decided to send out his troops (i.e., his current ministers) to present themselves as candidates to different official posts. It is a more personal perspective on the same political newstype, outlining Kirchner's authoritative figure and presenting him clearly as "the man behind the curtains", even if his wife becomes our next president.

The secondary news goes to Los Pumas, the same as the other paper we are analyzing. The victory over the French national team was a great boost to Argentine morale, specially at a time when Lofreda's team was undergoing much public scrutiny.

On a distant third level of importance come the investigation on a union officer (and his alleged bank accounts outside the country) and the recent increase of mortgage-rates (fixed rates are close to 15-17% per annum ...).

However it may be, the political tone has been set, and will most likely remain throughout the 8 weeks or so until the election. Who will be the media's candidate? We will see that during September ...

Sunday Headline News in Argentina (September 2nd 2007)

Nothing too wild going on this weekend in the top two newspapers: they shared (as is usual during weekends) the news that Argentina has classified to the Pekin Olympic games in basketball beating our (soccer) arch-rival and friendly neighbor Brazil. Then, each paper decided to focus on two very different news:

La Nación decided to look at a local political topic: the upcoming national elections (in less than two months). The comment stresses the large amount of positive economic announcements - all tending to increase disposable income - that the government has been making as the end of campaign grows near. On a more secondary note, the Papeleras conflict with (used-to-be-friendly) Uruguay is mentioned, as peaceful negotiations are about to be carried out. Lastly, there is also a column on the elections in two of the most relevant electoral districtrs after the Province and City of Buenos Aires: Santa Fé and Córdoba.


Clarín decides to stress the conflict with Uruguay over newly-constructed paper-mill Botnia as the number one item (as was during all of 2006, according to the news ranking published in the Observador de Medios http://observador-de-medios.blogspot.com ), and does so on a pessimistic tone, while also mentioning the elections in Santa Fé and Córdoba as relevant news as a prelude to the nationals in October.


Until next week, 'nuff said!

To Stamp or Not to Stamp

I'm a bit obsessed, I guess, with this inflation issue. It follows me everywhere. Today I went out to get some photocopies done around the corner, and I saw something odd. Something that struck me as funny at first, but very sad when the laughter stopped.

One of the girls at the photocopy place was putting stamps on some mail ... you know, regular mail, snail-mail, old-fashioned post-office thing that doesn't come with a "Send" button ... you get the point. An envelope, address, stamp. The real thing. When you get collectible stamps, etc. I'm trying hard to be redundant because this was not a regular envelope: it was an inflation-stricken letter, created by Freddy Krueger ... aestethically inadequate. Ugly. Expensive-looking. A bastard child of inflationary economies.

See for yourself:

This deserves an explanation. Sending letters to the Province of Buenos Aires used to cost $ 6.50 (u$s 2 and a bit). Stamps were denominated in $0.75 and $0.25, some higher even. Now snail-mail - unlike its digital counterpart which cuts costs constantly - is increasing its prices. Sending a letter to the province now costs $11.50 or so (almost u$s 4). And stamp denomination was not automatically "increased", since they are printed and it takes time. So, they now have to use a crapload of stamps - filling 50/60% of the envelope, to put enough stamps ... God save us all from oblivion.

Snail-mail is dead. Long live snail-mail.

Hipocrisy 101: The Infamous Nineties

All of you Spanish Speakers will appreciate this ... a web-only video of President Kirchner (who never tires of demonizing the 90's as a lost decade and criticizes convertibility as the destroyer of local industry) and ex-President Menem. Kirchner speaks of Menem as a change agent in Argentina, who everybody should admire ... enough said!

Price Distortion

Today I found out first-hand about the real price distortion in Argentina. I had to go for the first time to a new graduate program where I began teaching and, since I had no clue how long it would take to get there, I went there by car. Since someone took the only empty space in front of the University, I had to look for a parking spot around.

Two blocks away, I found this horrid-dirty looking parking place ... $ 4.20 an hour (u$s 1.40). Fair enough, given the u$s 2 charged in mid-town. So I went to class - a nice enough group of lawyers doing a law/biz adm graduate program - and then went back to get the car. On my way back I prayed to God it would still be there, and it was. The problem was when I asked "how much?" and the guy took my ticket, put in a couple of numbers in the machine, and spat out "$ 11". I looked at the price list (yes, sue me, I am an accountant and work in pricing and planning) and said "it's wrong - 2 1/2 hours is $ 4.20 x 2 plus $ 2.10 - that's only $ 10.50". To which he replied "I gotta charge you what the machine says. It says $ 11." Faced with that undeniable logic, added to the fact my car was nowhere in sight, I payed up, asked for a receipt and as I climbed on my car mumbled "this is the first and last time I come here" - to which he replied "fine".

My conclusion: this was a description of economics of plentiness. What is that? Too many cars around, the parking lot was overflowing, and they still had room to increase prices before getting hassled by authorities. So, why care about me? I would be replaced instantaneously by another sucker. And then another. In a year of record car sales (300.000 during the first six months of the year), he might be right not to care. At least, ntil the next crisis and until he closes down the lot and puts up a 5 on 5 soccer court or paddle tennis or the next fad.

Sunday Headline News in Argentina

Nothing too interesting happened this weekend in the news. There was - as usual - at least one common denominator in the first-page news at Clarín and La Nación, the 2 most popular newspapers in the country. This was the imminent increase in ABL (property taxes - stands for lighting, sweeping and cleaning in Spanish) taxes everywhere around the city, looking to raise approx. U$S 50 million this year and U$S 200 extra million in 2008. The reason: property fiscal valuations have not been updated since 1993, and the new mayor needs some additional funding to cut the deficit that Telerman - actual mayor and 3rd place out of three in last election - promised to leave the city with breakeven finances.

Anyhow, the sad result of this untimely tax increase - amidst the President´s other set of economic measures all moving in the direction of increasing disposable income and thus prolonging the consumption boom that's fueling economic growth - is that we will all pay increases ranging from 50% tp 150%. Macri's PRO party will have to take some of the heat for the tax increase, even though the FpV (President's party) also approved it. There is a heated debate right now, that will spread over this last week of the month - whether this increase will be revoked or not.

Other headline news: La Nación mentions illegal aliens in the US, who left Argentina after the last crisis (totally irrelevant subject, if you ask me), and also shows evidence about how January's inflation was manipulated. This has been an ongoing topic and the national statistics organism (INdEC) has lost absolutely all credibility in the eyes of local and foreign - and may even generate important legal actions against the country since manipulating the inflation index directly lowers the yield on Gov't Bonds ties to inflation (CER adjusted) therefore newly affecting investors' rights. Seems we need to make our homework there, otherwise we'll just end uo selling all of our bonds to petrodollar-rich-neighborhood-friendly Chávez. At twice the rate the IMF used to lend to us, but hey, they bothered us with the talk about institutions that may actually force us to reconsider if our path to growth is something that can last over the long run or a short-lived fantasy. Heck, sometimes it seems like the 90's, except that it's a 3 to 1 convertibility instead of 1 to 1 and there are less trips to Miami!

Clarín talks about the most important and relevant news in the country: My beloved Independiente is leading the local champsionship. With a 3 point lead over the 2 challengers, we are playing historic rival Boca Juniors on Wednesday.

Fine, I was wrong, so what? (Speeding Ticket Part II)

Or at least I was semi-wrong. Yesterday morning the story started at 6.45am ... I had been told to be there at 7am, but a very kind family member helped me out and got there at 6.45 - and there were already 30 people waiting. She got the number 21, and as I arrived at 8.30am, she was already talking to the traffic controller secretary or whatever. She just printed out a page, gave us a new number which led us to wait in a large room full of people of every socio-economic level whose sole common denominator was having traffic tickets - everything from red lights to doing 200km/h or not having put on their seat-belts.

After another half hour, the noisy machine that showed what seemed like random undecypherable alphanumeric codes (beeping every time a new one was displayed), we were up (by the way, besides the beeping codes, traffic controllers also came about screaming people's names - I don't know who decided whether you got a beeping number or a screaming name-call, that's for newly-elected Mayor Macri to figure out). So, we get to the traffic-controller (for those expecting a fat gentleman in suit and tie, you are in for a disappointment): he was just a regular guy. One of forty-something traffic controllers. So we sit down, I explain to him why I had sped (I won't say why, I'll keep it a mistery) and he says I can either pay U$S 35 (minimum fine, he was being kind and lowering it from U$S 50) or wait to talk to the judge (who of course would get there in another half hour).

So, I went for the judge. And it took her an hour to get there and start imparting justice. Anyhow, we get called - this time by name (woo-hoo!) and go back to the same controller, who makes me sign some papers and explains the judge had bestowed upon me her divine benevolence because it was my first offense - and due to the by now very misterious situation I will not ever reveal. So, that was that: by 10am I was out and having won my small insignificant victory against the state. I felt U$S 50 richer, but I also felt there was something seriously wrong with the system.

And I had a great incentive to never speed again!

For those of you wanting to read more (albeit in Spanish): http://www.clarin.com/diario/2007/03/06/laciudad/h-04215.htm

A Culture of Protest

Argentina has a deep-rooted culture of protests. I am too young to know when it started, but old enough to know it has a horrible effect on a country's image. I remember watching TV a few years ago and seeing tourist walking to and from the airport (Ezeiza Int'l Airport), just because there was a protest and cars were not allowed to approach the airport. Old people carrying bags and complaninig. Spanish tourists saying they will never return. Then again, they might have come here just to do some cheap shopping, but that does not give us any reason to overhaul their security and basic rights.

Still, it seems we simply don't care. During 2006, protesters of all sorts bloqued roads 817 times. Almost 3 times a day (if you count weekends). Crazy. However, well below 2005, when roads were cut almost 1200 times during the year (by the way, almost half of the number of 2002, year of crisis in Argentina). And where are the rest of the people's rights? I mean, if you block the road and I want to cross it, you are manifesting your constitutional right to express yourself but I am not allowed "free transit" among Argentinean soil. However, after the 2002 incident which cost Eduardo Duhalde an early call to elections, during the portests which ended with some policemen killing youngsters Kosteki and Santillán, no one has had a taste for police repression. In fact, laissez-faire seems to be at the ordre du jour. Although it might buy Presidents time, it hurts the rest of the population a lot. We feel vulnerable. Unprotected. We are driven against the government by its own inaction. And that is never good for either side of the equation.

Any reason is a good reason to protest: lately, it has been higher salaries (the President's province has been "taken" by hords of people roaming the streets, and he has solved it ordering 3 salary increases in a year), it has also happened as result of a struggle for political control (UBA, Carlos Pellegrini school) and it continues as protests against certain government measures that minority groups dislike (i.e., Quebracho). It's not that I am totally against protest: I feel the cacerolazos (kitchen-pan) protests after the crisis should have been more widespread and far-reaching than they were, and so were protests against insecurity; but there is a limit to protest. When it becomes the standard way of asking for things, it might mean that there is something rotten in the way things work.

Worst of all is when people get results blocking roads and so on, it generates a belief that so doing is the only way of getting things done. And that is a dangerous road to go down, since we might end up going around the right way of protesting, which is carefully electing our representatives and removing them when they failed to keep their promises. So, I guess it's a matter of thinking with out heads and realizing that a careful, rational vote will take us further than a street protest which ultimately destroys country equity by making it a worse place to visit for tourists and to live in for locals.

We should keep this exceptional manner of protesting for times when it's really necessary. Otherwise, it becomes just like the story of the boy who always cried wolf ...

Speeding Ticket Citation: Has to be Fiction (Part 1)

About a month ago, at 10.30pm, I was returning home from a very long day at work, and as I was heading towards Libertador Av., I saw two consecutive flashes of light that were unmistakable: I was speeding (70km/h instead of the 60km/h limit). Since then, no news. Then all of a sudden, I receive a citation to go to the Traffic Controller and explaing what had happened (and if my explanation was satisfactory, I would be pardoned and receive no fine). If I did not go, I would automatically receive a fine (aprox. U$S 50).

So, I decided to go at noon today (they had cited me at that time) and, as I approached the municipal building, I prayed that all those horrible stories people had told me about going there were actually mistaken. They weren't. In fact, they fell short.

The place is absolute chaos. Dirty. Homeless people living outside, lying on the ground wrapped in dirty blankets. Has to be fiction, I thought. But it wasn't. Once inside, things got worse: a long queue of people waiting in the best Disneyland style - some sitting, some exhausted from the hours they had already spent there. So, I thought there were surely many lines, there had to be one for each different task (citation, paying a fine, general questions, etc.). No, one line for all. Once I figured out where it ended (it actually went outside the building onto the sidewalk), I asked approximately how long it would take to get to talk to someone who might pardon me. They said that in an hour they would hand out the numbers for the afternoon, and after that the real wait would start. In five hours I would be out, they said. All of this, of course, was being done during lunchtime. Now and only now I understood why the people who can prefer just paying for the fines instead of going through this humiliation. What happens then, to those who can't pay? I guess, like me, they must wait in line. To be continued this Friday, when I will go at 7am to do the number queue and then try to get out before 10am ...

Unlikely Bed-fellows ...

Who would have thought Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's democratically-elected-dictator-to-be, would prove to be our President's most faithful (and deep-pocketed) ally? Do not be fooled by any populist announcements: Mr. Chavez is no fool, as is not Mr. G. W. Bush who buys Chavez's oil. Chavez, somewhat contradictory to his populist-socialist speech, is a very good businessman.

Kirchner gets "easy" financing from Chávez, and thus skips IMF white-tape and those horrific "conditions" for their loans. God forbids, they might actually prove to be right about some of the things they say and it might confuse people ... anyhow, Mr. Kicrhner managed to construct a cycle to elude IMF dependency but we are all paying the price of that - paying as high as twice as much (11% vs IMF's 5.5%) as we would have had to pay the much-hated Bretton Woods creation. Then our lender of last resort Mr. Hugo goes home and sells those bonds in the secondary market, not retaining Argentinean risk for longer than it takes to say "gracias". But, hey, independency has its costs.

On a side note, I read today that we are Chavez's second favorite investment destination: only rivalled and surpassed by market-friendly Cuba! For those of you who wanted to be compared to the US or Europe, there you have it: as far away from it as you possibly can get. Oh, and by the way, FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) fell YoY for 2006 and is falling QoQ for 2007 1st quarter ... announced investments are small, multi-year and most "forceful" due to disappearing output gaps. But then again, it shouldn't be a surprise for us - we never really were market-friendly except for the (God-forbid-we-ever-return-to-the -scandalous) 90's, when FDI was knocking on our doorstep uninvited. Seeing how it all ended will never explain that investment is bad, no matter how you look at it. Genuine external investment will not return before price-mechanisms are restored in the markets (energy, transport, food, at least).

Now it all becomes more complex when a certain gentleman, who by the way was invited to fly on a private jet rented by ENARSA and tries to "smuggle" U$S 800.000 in a hand-bag. How did this happen? Has it happened before and did it go undetected then? why? why now? As everyone - including the FBI anytime now - tries to find Mr. Antonini Wilson, another corruption scandal hits the Government as it is about to embark on the last 3 months in power (Skanska, strike one; Miceli and the money-bag, strike two, Romina Piccolotti and her numerous family aides in the Ministry of Environment, miss, and this sounds like a 3rd strike). The Gov't did not need this, least of all now. Not when it has presented Cristina Kirchner, Senator and First Lady, as a firm succession candidate for her husband. If circumstances forced K to revisit his decision, these cases coming to light and devoured by the press might hurt him beyond return.

For the time being, and until this mess is sorted out, we will assume Mr Antonini Wilson wanted to buy a property in Argentina - and maybe lend Miceli (Argentina's ex-Economy Minister) some money to buy hers. Maybe he just didn't make it to her private bathroom ...

As Good a Place to Start as Any ...

Since every story has a starting point, I guess any time is a good time to start this kind of attention-seeking, tourist-alienating, semi-schizo blog. No, really, I have no clue where this english-spoken blog is going to take me [us?]. All I know is I don't feel I can express myself 100% in my spanish-speaking blog - and I seem to get very lost among many media analyses and academic constructions. I needed a space to just do what Mr. Rowe, my high-school English teacher, would have called "stream of consciousness". I will just lay it down as it enters my mind, and I hope it's worth something to the readers.


If anything, at least you'll gain some perspective on life in Argentina seen by a local, who has also lived in many different (and all richer) places and can (hopefully) have an enhanced point-of-view, neither overly-proud and protective nor too aloof and indifferent to care. I will discuss politics, economics, and every-day mundane commonalities - those that best depict our culture, probably. I would love to hear [read] your thoughts and have open discussions, as long as it is constructive and well-mannered.

Welcome!