Creating a New Blumberg

With its attack on farmers, the government has once again generated the proper atmosphere for the emergence of what I like to call "situational leaders". Juan Carlos Blumberg, the father of a kidnapped and murdered teenager, became the flagship of the fight that society led against insecurity during Nestor Kirchner's government.

Alfredo de Angelis, a rural director for the Argentine Agricultural Federation (FAA), has jumped to stardom due to the government conflict with his sector. He was quite outspoken about another lockout once the fragile negotiation period with the government is over, and the want to see him behind bars. He says that his powers that be. He says that the campo put him where he is, much like Blumberg blamed his stardom on his son's murder - quite regretfully. De Angeli has been defended by the opposing parties, who are trying to avoid the conflict from turning more sour than it currently is.

The main issue is that the government, with its unpopular measures, in a way has set the stage for the emergence of these accidental heroes. Blumberg came onto the scene a few years ago promising he would not run for office, even though he was courted and enticed by many, and was successful for as long as he stayed independent, representing a claim society considered genuine and truthful. He had the credibility the government lacked and showed the frustration and pain only someone who has been there could. As soon as he accepted a candidacy, he was doomed; his fake engineer title was investigated and he was ridiculized publicly for not being what he said he was. His credibility was lost and so was his appeal to the masses.

De Angelis' appearance is quite different: he appears in an already heavily politicized environment and was outwardly attacked by the ruling party. He is being victimized and could be a possible scapegoat for the failure to properly address the export tax conflict. His protagonism could turn to shreds in the upcoming days or - if the government gets its way - his incarceration could be seen as the martyrdom needed to truly become a political actor in the rural scene (as well as in the union scene, where he already has his place).

Be it how it may, the government has once again planted the seeds of its undoing. By heavily antagonizing a large sector of society and miscalculating the popular reaction to its measures, it has allowed figure as De Angelis and Blumberg to steal protagonism, even if it may only be for their 15 minutes of fame.

The headache for the government for sure will last longer than that.

To Build a Future We Must Put Our Past Behind

Our 200th anniversary as a Nation is approaching, and we will be missing a unique chance to reinvent ourselves. It is a true academic case-study how Argentina has fallen from one of the sweet spots in the country development grid to a below-average country, with inflation, instability, political uncertainty, a restricted and introverted economy and questionable friends. Chile, Mexico and Brazil have taken the long and painful way, and we thought we could take the shortcut to regain our status (1 to 1 convertibility) and now an iron fist rule to keep everyone in line (3 to 1 convertibility).

Never has the country had such favorable external conditions; since 2003, the world has smiled to Argentina and given us a chance to shine again. However, our political leaders have once and again decided to shrug away from that and preferred an isolationist approach (much like their more famous political ancestor, Juan Domingo Perón) and the debt has not paid off. In these past five years, Argentina has "gotten back up", much like a sick person does after being in bed for a month. We have never really gotten out of the hospital, though. And both Nestor and Cristina Kirchner would rather have a country isolated from the outside world, safe among ourselves and indifferent to the rest. To their credit, they learnt that Menem's overtly zealous external policies might have caused some harm - our indebtedness and vulnerability to financial markets made us a sitting duck during any crisis. As it usually happens, the pendulum has swung all the way to the opposite end; and there is no sign anyone is looking to find convenient middle ground for our aspirations to become a serious nation Again.

President Cristina Fernández, right before the elections, generated some positive expectations as someone whose priorities would be to reinsert Argentina in the world while being a more moderate peronist ruler. She has proved everyone wrong is just 100 days, and has quickly but surely dilapidated a large amount of political capital that not only she but also her husband spent 5 years to build. To nobody's surprise, the farming conflict - still unresolved - has stirred criticisms right and left but, more importantly, and a side effect nobody expected, has awakened voiced of dissent from within the ruling party. Suddenly, some province governors speak out against the excessive accumulation of power from the central government. Suddenly, "has been" politicians feel safer to speak out and regain ground in the political arena. What if they got organized and form an opposing coalition for next elections?

This seems like a far off dream. Argentina has no solid national oppostion, and the only one to gain is the President and her husband, who want to alternate in power until retirement (or until son or daughter enter the political world). The Kirchners have a habit of ruling with an iron fist in the Province of Santa Cruz. Argentina is not the Province of Santa Cruz, as Mme. President has learnt the hard way, and the will not stand by to watch her boss everyone around, pointing fingers and uncovering imaginary plots to destabilize her.

She is playing with fire when she refers to recent public manifestations as reminders of the 1976 military coup. She is very vindictive and constantly reminds us that she in on the side of the montoneros who stood up to the military and the Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo who saw their sons fight and lose a dirty guerilla war. It would be of much help for Mme. President to look around and see how Mexico, Chile and Brazil have dealt with similar issues. Constant reminders the way to go. Forgetting is not an option either. Again, a middle ground is always preferred under such nerve-racking issues: assume our history, make sure we don't make the same mistake again and move on.

It is the only way to regain lost ground. No more proud speeches. No more threats. No more obstacles to growth and no more illegitimate taxes. Less fiction would help us build a better reality.

photo: courtesy of the web!

Excellent Video (in Spanish) : Argentina is Definitely Fiction

Public vs Private, Round 2

Ahh ... the conflict continues. Yesterday the government called for a very large public gathering in the historic Plaza de Mayo - "Support for the National Government" or something of the sort. As can be expected, these was not a "spontaneous" show of love for the government; I heard several people say that they were offering money to unemployed to come to the act in officially paid buses. None of this, of course, can be proven, but it exists and the peronist governments have always had this "attraction power" (one can only wonder what the infamous U$S 800 k from the Venezuelan suitcase were for ...).


Anyhow, the president spoke (again, people are getting kind of tired of the barricade speeches) for 26 uninterrupted minutes, with all of the ministers watching and her husband in the shadows, carefully assessing the situation. Needless to say, CGT's leader Moyano and Piquetero Luis d'Elia were among the celebrities who assisted to the VIP spots.

I think the president still has not grasped the essence of the situation, which sge tries to describe as follows:
- Those evil farmers want to leave uus without food
- Those evil farmers want to grab all of the wealth
- Those evil farmers are just a few large landowners, the "common" farmer in fact likes the government
- No democratically elected president in Argentina has been as attacked as she has been in the first 100 days
- She is convinced part of the reason this is happening is because she is a woman (?)
- We will not allow Argentina to go back to the past (?)
- Help me unite the country

The two last points, besides the government's clear meddling into private affairs and private sector profitability, are the two that worry me the most. Mme President has indirectly pointed to the farmers and compared them to the military coup from 1976. What on earth do they have to do with one another? No one knows ... what we do know, is that she is holding on to her president chair and sending out a preemptive message to anyone trying to destabilize her: she fill fight tooth and fang. The farmers do not want to take over the power, they just want to be able to carry out their activities as free from Government intervention as possible (the debate could go on for hours, since the high exchange rate which favors them is also generated by official policy ...).

The last point seems hypocritical at best. With her March 25th speech, she was the first to disrupt peace and separate the country. Since then, it took her 3 more speeches to tone down her fervor and passion, and we can still see that she is unwilling to negotiate what was described by vice-president Cobos as "somewhat rash" (the March 12th announcement of increasing soybean export taxes).

My point is this: people did not come out to the streets last week to support the farmers in its entirety; they came out to protest against the government's attitude and to defend the freedom of the private over the public. Until Mme President understands thatm she will have a very hard time managing the country, because this is bound to happen again.

As for the first 100 days, a short analysis and comparison between her first 100 days and her husband's are under way. Stay tuned!