Wednesday, November 12, 2008

External Pressure, Internal Chaos

If ever there was one, the honeymoon is over for President Cristina Fernández.  In less than a year, she has managed to waste the (little?) political capital that her husband transferred along with the presidential band.  Far behind remain the times when the world looked up at her as a signal of changing times in Argentina, maybe even a maturity that the nigh-adolescent behavior that her husband often showed never allowed.  "She was the thinking one", said many and thought more.


Indeed, she turned out to be the thinking one - and the talking one.  Everything else was done by her husband, ex-President Néstor Kirchner.  The fiscal voracity they showed when they tried to raise farmer export taxes for the fifth time in as many years backfired violently - and turned people's sentiments into that of hatred and disgust (which any president must avoid).  Furthermore, the tinkering with inflation indices worsened and trust in the country dramatically fell - generating a capital flight only comparable to that of 2001.  Until this point, things were bad but Argentina suffered from a self-induced illness.

Little could the Kirchners imagine that the very same external economic conditions, which were undoubtedly the single most important factor that kept them in power, were about to change direction fiercely and mercilessly.  Along with the sub-prime crisis (shamelessly dubbed Jazz Effect by President Fernández), came the end of Argentina's good fortunes.  No longer could the government milk the export taxes, since commodity prices around the world were falling at unimaginable rates.  What now?

Fortunately, politics is not short in imagination.  Less than 60 days ago, the government decided unilaterally to nationalize the private pension system.  Granted, the system is less than 2 decades old and full of flaws - but certainly there are other remedies before cutting the limb altogether.  Wrokers's reactions, however, were not as organized or as noisy as the farmers' - after all, people have to go to work and lack the organizational structure of the 4 national agricultural entities.  The lower chamber passed the law very easily into the Senate, who have a very tough job, for the second time this year ...


A rising dollar, falling employment, falling commodity prices, worsened public sentiment ... all seem a well too common picture for old timers, and the outcome is all too familiar and lacking serious alternatives. While the world tightens its belt, Argentineans are finally realizing that the Kirchners are very efficient riding good waves, but are not fit to captain stormy waters ... and stormy waters, these definitely are.