Thursday, March 27, 2008

The Story Thus Far ...

I have spent quite some time reflecting upon the inminent socio-political conflict bubbling in Argentina. Needless to say, my findings are not so optimistic - tonight I'll explore recent causes for the turbulence (I leave for later some of the more philosophical reasoning behind it all).

The infamous campo did not start their complaint last night: Mme President's speech was just the drop which made the glass overflow. The relationship between the Argentinean commodity sector and the gov't has been strained since the devaluation. After several years of "thin cows" and suffering continuous losses, the sector suddenly faced devaluated costs and dollar-denominated prices. For some time, it seemed like heaven, and profitability sky-rocketed (however, that does not mean that it was enought to revert years of losses and unrecovered investments!).

The gov't of course quickly realized that the favorable conditions were not only the rising international commodity prices but the new peso-dollar parity of 3 to 1 assured the hacienda and ganado farmers high returns. Enter the export taxes, which effectively drive down the "real dollar" for commodity exports. More violent still, there was even a 6 month export ban on meat, for a similar conflict.

At the same time, an old arch-enemy also started to show her face: inflation. As nominal salaries rose, existing capacity was exhausted, employment rose and industrial capacity did not expand (due to investments), prices started to react. One after the other, internal prices and salaries started a race which is currently ongoing (I would say, at a "fast strolling" pace and not running or sprinting yet).

To conclude, if you inflate costs and reduce by 44% the exchange rate for exports, farmers are left with economic conditions similar or worse than the end of the 90's ... which is precisely where this protest has put us - hitting our pots & pans, when we should be banging our heads for having forgotten our past - and therefore reliving it.

PS -tongiht's and last night's pictures from the internet, not mine!