Friday, April 4, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Public vs Private, Round 2
Ahh ... the conflict continues. Yesterday the government called for a very large public gathering in the historic Plaza de Mayo - "Support for the National Government" or something of the sort. As can be expected, these was not a "spontaneous" show of love for the government; I heard several people say that they were offering money to unemployed to come to the act in officially paid buses. None of this, of course, can be proven, but it exists and the peronist governments have always had this "attraction power" (one can only wonder what the infamous U$S 800 k from the Venezuelan suitcase were for ...).
Anyhow, the president spoke (again, people are getting kind of tired of the barricade speeches) for 26 uninterrupted minutes, with all of the ministers watching and her husband in the shadows, carefully assessing the situation. Needless to say, CGT's leader Moyano and Piquetero Luis d'Elia were among the celebrities who assisted to the VIP spots.
I think the president still has not grasped the essence of the situation, which sge tries to describe as follows:
- Those evil farmers want to leave uus without food
- Those evil farmers want to grab all of the wealth
- Those evil farmers are just a few large landowners, the "common" farmer in fact likes the government
- No democratically elected president in Argentina has been as attacked as she has been in the first 100 days
- She is convinced part of the reason this is happening is because she is a woman (?)
- We will not allow Argentina to go back to the past (?)
- Help me unite the country
The two last points, besides the government's clear meddling into private affairs and private sector profitability, are the two that worry me the most. Mme President has indirectly pointed to the farmers and compared them to the military coup from 1976. What on earth do they have to do with one another? No one knows ... what we do know, is that she is holding on to her president chair and sending out a preemptive message to anyone trying to destabilize her: she fill fight tooth and fang. The farmers do not want to take over the power, they just want to be able to carry out their activities as free from Government intervention as possible (the debate could go on for hours, since the high exchange rate which favors them is also generated by official policy ...).
The last point seems hypocritical at best. With her March 25th speech, she was the first to disrupt peace and separate the country. Since then, it took her 3 more speeches to tone down her fervor and passion, and we can still see that she is unwilling to negotiate what was described by vice-president Cobos as "somewhat rash" (the March 12th announcement of increasing soybean export taxes).
My point is this: people did not come out to the streets last week to support the farmers in its entirety; they came out to protest against the government's attitude and to defend the freedom of the private over the public. Until Mme President understands thatm she will have a very hard time managing the country, because this is bound to happen again.
As for the first 100 days, a short analysis and comparison between her first 100 days and her husband's are under way. Stay tuned!
Anyhow, the president spoke (again, people are getting kind of tired of the barricade speeches) for 26 uninterrupted minutes, with all of the ministers watching and her husband in the shadows, carefully assessing the situation. Needless to say, CGT's leader Moyano and Piquetero Luis d'Elia were among the celebrities who assisted to the VIP spots.
I think the president still has not grasped the essence of the situation, which sge tries to describe as follows:
- Those evil farmers want to leave uus without food
- Those evil farmers want to grab all of the wealth
- Those evil farmers are just a few large landowners, the "common" farmer in fact likes the government
- No democratically elected president in Argentina has been as attacked as she has been in the first 100 days
- She is convinced part of the reason this is happening is because she is a woman (?)
- We will not allow Argentina to go back to the past (?)
- Help me unite the country
The two last points, besides the government's clear meddling into private affairs and private sector profitability, are the two that worry me the most. Mme President has indirectly pointed to the farmers and compared them to the military coup from 1976. What on earth do they have to do with one another? No one knows ... what we do know, is that she is holding on to her president chair and sending out a preemptive message to anyone trying to destabilize her: she fill fight tooth and fang. The farmers do not want to take over the power, they just want to be able to carry out their activities as free from Government intervention as possible (the debate could go on for hours, since the high exchange rate which favors them is also generated by official policy ...).
The last point seems hypocritical at best. With her March 25th speech, she was the first to disrupt peace and separate the country. Since then, it took her 3 more speeches to tone down her fervor and passion, and we can still see that she is unwilling to negotiate what was described by vice-president Cobos as "somewhat rash" (the March 12th announcement of increasing soybean export taxes).
My point is this: people did not come out to the streets last week to support the farmers in its entirety; they came out to protest against the government's attitude and to defend the freedom of the private over the public. Until Mme President understands thatm she will have a very hard time managing the country, because this is bound to happen again.
As for the first 100 days, a short analysis and comparison between her first 100 days and her husband's are under way. Stay tuned!
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Hope
For some obscure reason, I want to be hopeful about Argentina. We have had our most recent crises in 1976, 1983, 1989, 1995 (mild) and 2001. Statistically speaking, we are far ahead in the pregnancy of our next crisis. I am really hoping for a miscarriage.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
There are Reasons why Public does not equal Private
A few minutes ago I watched how Alberto Fernandez, Chief of Cabinet, informed the press how negotiations with the campo had gone. Sitting besides a speechless Lousteau (who looked a lot like Messi did when he did not get to play in the last World Cup game), he mentioned how everything had gone fine and how after fixing each parties position he had heard the campo's requests. Obviously there was no negotiation on the export taxes, which is what the campo unionists were there for in the first place ... Fernandez did mention a couple of things which will, IMHO, add to the already existing noise: He mentioned they would work on a plan to assure small ruralists a fair profit according to their activity.I've just got 2 questions: (1). What happens with the mid and large ruralists? (2). How does the government get to determine how much profil any ruralist will make?
A countless amount of questions appear once you start thinking about the first two. Since it's very late and I am very tired, I will just say this: there is a reason why there is a clear separation between the private and the public. Argentinean politicians seem to believe there is no line in the sand, and trespassing is a mere attribution that the State has.
Dear sir, that is wrong. Not only should the State not determine profitability of any sector; it should not intervene at all, except to set clear rules for it not to have to meddle. Then we ask ourselves - how come we are losing ground in Foreign Investment? How come our business climate is far from optimal?
When the state starts taking care of the state - which means finding ways to run more efficiently and therefore need less taxes to run bigger - we will all be better off. Until then, we will continue to be a forever-emerging country run by simple-minded control freaks.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
The Story Thus Far ...
I have spent quite some time reflecting upon the inminent socio-political conflict bubbling in Argentina. Needless to say, my findings are not so optimistic - tonight I'll explore recent causes for the turbulence (I leave for later some of the more philosophical reasoning behind it all).
The infamous campo did not start their complaint last night: Mme President's speech was just the drop which made the glass overflow. The relationship between the Argentinean commodity sector and the gov't has been strained since the devaluation. After several years of "thin cows" and suffering continuous losses, the sector suddenly faced devaluated costs and dollar-denominated prices. For some time, it seemed like heaven, and profitability sky-rocketed (however, that does not mean that it was enought to revert years of losses and unrecovered investments!).
The gov't of course quickly realized that the favorable conditions were not only the rising international commodity prices but the new peso-dollar parity of 3 to 1 assured the hacienda and ganado farmers high returns. Enter the export taxes, which effectively drive down the "real dollar" for commodity exports. More violent still, there was even a 6 month export ban on meat, for a similar conflict.
At the same time, an old arch-enemy also started to show her face: inflation. As nominal salaries rose, existing capacity was exhausted, employment rose and industrial capacity did not expand (due to investments), prices started to react. One after the other, internal prices and salaries started a race which is currently ongoing (I would say, at a "fast strolling" pace and not running or sprinting yet).
To conclude, if you inflate costs and reduce by 44% the exchange rate for exports, farmers are left with economic conditions similar or worse than the end of the 90's ... which is precisely where this protest has put us - hitting our pots & pans, when we should be banging our heads for having forgotten our past - and therefore reliving it.
PS -tongiht's and last night's pictures from the internet, not mine!
The infamous campo did not start their complaint last night: Mme President's speech was just the drop which made the glass overflow. The relationship between the Argentinean commodity sector and the gov't has been strained since the devaluation. After several years of "thin cows" and suffering continuous losses, the sector suddenly faced devaluated costs and dollar-denominated prices. For some time, it seemed like heaven, and profitability sky-rocketed (however, that does not mean that it was enought to revert years of losses and unrecovered investments!).
The gov't of course quickly realized that the favorable conditions were not only the rising international commodity prices but the new peso-dollar parity of 3 to 1 assured the hacienda and ganado farmers high returns. Enter the export taxes, which effectively drive down the "real dollar" for commodity exports. More violent still, there was even a 6 month export ban on meat, for a similar conflict.
At the same time, an old arch-enemy also started to show her face: inflation. As nominal salaries rose, existing capacity was exhausted, employment rose and industrial capacity did not expand (due to investments), prices started to react. One after the other, internal prices and salaries started a race which is currently ongoing (I would say, at a "fast strolling" pace and not running or sprinting yet).
To conclude, if you inflate costs and reduce by 44% the exchange rate for exports, farmers are left with economic conditions similar or worse than the end of the 90's ... which is precisely where this protest has put us - hitting our pots & pans, when we should be banging our heads for having forgotten our past - and therefore reliving it.
PS -tongiht's and last night's pictures from the internet, not mine!
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Pots & Pans have Awaken me from my Slumber
Yeah, yeah, I know: it's been a while. I took a "writing hiatus" mostly for personal reasons: I had a lovely daughter and, quite frankly, there was almost never any time to spare. But tonight, something awoke me from my long slumber.
It happened near 8pm, when I heard a neighbor (a couple of buildings away) hit her pots & pans in the balcony. A couple of moments before I was washed away by the excessive pride shown by Madame President in her speech, directed at the agribusiness who have halted activities since almost 2 weeks ago to protest gov't intromission into their value chain. Our diaper-carrying economy Minister announced 2 weeks ago the increase of export taxes to soybean (Argentina´s main cultive), to ~42%. Yes, you read right: 42 out of every 100 dollars would go to the gov't pocket (and trust me, this is not Sweden - people get nothing from that increase - no more hospitals, no more security, no better education).
So, people said enough: much like a 2001 flashback, people started banging (quite loudly, I must say) their pots and pans in the middle of the street, in their balconies, supporting the agro sector and asking the gov't to reflect on its mistakes. However, it is now almost midnight and we are as far as possible from a peaceful reconciliation: people have gathered at the historical Plaza de Mayo and so have some gov´t-supporting piqueteros. Nothing good can come out of that explosive cocktail.
In the middle of it all, the most important question is related to the Role of the State: ¿Will the gov't reserve the right to determine how much is "enough profit" in the private activities? ¿Is that not a very communist thing to do, and, if so, can they think of ever attracting Foreign Investment this way? (Argentina's economic model, of course, makes sense WITHOUT investment, which would otherwise force the gov't to buy more dollars to maintain the devaluation ...).
This type of thing never happened to Mr Kirchner; except for 2 or 3 occasions when Mr Blumberg - the father of an express kidnapping victim - filled the Plaza to ask for more security. People now gathered with a genuine request to the President: review the economic measures affecting the agribusiness (which suffered great losses during 1997-2002, and has been booming since 2003). The gov't response was, apparently, to send in the piqueteros and take back the Plaza.
These were ordinary people telling the gov't to listen. The gov't loves to speak and to give orders. Argentineans have, in the past and despite continuous episodes when the state appropriated their savings, been docile. Maybe that time is over. Maybe everyone is fed up with someone - be it a he or a she from the K dinasty - bossing them around. This was fine during a crisis, when a strong personality and leadership were needed to emerge as unscathed as possible. Now, the worst seems to be over and the world is giving us a chance to stand up: maybe, and just maybe, people are realizing that they do not want to be so docile or supportive of a President asking for too much and giving too little. Maybe, and just maybe, this opens an enormous door for the opposition to build upon. They have not been able to do so in the past; I trust they have learned from their mistakes and will do so in time for 2011.
If not, we run the risk of attention-grabbing, photolog-loving-teenager Florencia K (aka Florkey) to run for office ... God forbid!
It happened near 8pm, when I heard a neighbor (a couple of buildings away) hit her pots & pans in the balcony. A couple of moments before I was washed away by the excessive pride shown by Madame President in her speech, directed at the agribusiness who have halted activities since almost 2 weeks ago to protest gov't intromission into their value chain. Our diaper-carrying economy Minister announced 2 weeks ago the increase of export taxes to soybean (Argentina´s main cultive), to ~42%. Yes, you read right: 42 out of every 100 dollars would go to the gov't pocket (and trust me, this is not Sweden - people get nothing from that increase - no more hospitals, no more security, no better education).
So, people said enough: much like a 2001 flashback, people started banging (quite loudly, I must say) their pots and pans in the middle of the street, in their balconies, supporting the agro sector and asking the gov't to reflect on its mistakes. However, it is now almost midnight and we are as far as possible from a peaceful reconciliation: people have gathered at the historical Plaza de Mayo and so have some gov´t-supporting piqueteros. Nothing good can come out of that explosive cocktail.
In the middle of it all, the most important question is related to the Role of the State: ¿Will the gov't reserve the right to determine how much is "enough profit" in the private activities? ¿Is that not a very communist thing to do, and, if so, can they think of ever attracting Foreign Investment this way? (Argentina's economic model, of course, makes sense WITHOUT investment, which would otherwise force the gov't to buy more dollars to maintain the devaluation ...).
This type of thing never happened to Mr Kirchner; except for 2 or 3 occasions when Mr Blumberg - the father of an express kidnapping victim - filled the Plaza to ask for more security. People now gathered with a genuine request to the President: review the economic measures affecting the agribusiness (which suffered great losses during 1997-2002, and has been booming since 2003). The gov't response was, apparently, to send in the piqueteros and take back the Plaza.
These were ordinary people telling the gov't to listen. The gov't loves to speak and to give orders. Argentineans have, in the past and despite continuous episodes when the state appropriated their savings, been docile. Maybe that time is over. Maybe everyone is fed up with someone - be it a he or a she from the K dinasty - bossing them around. This was fine during a crisis, when a strong personality and leadership were needed to emerge as unscathed as possible. Now, the worst seems to be over and the world is giving us a chance to stand up: maybe, and just maybe, people are realizing that they do not want to be so docile or supportive of a President asking for too much and giving too little. Maybe, and just maybe, this opens an enormous door for the opposition to build upon. They have not been able to do so in the past; I trust they have learned from their mistakes and will do so in time for 2011.
If not, we run the risk of attention-grabbing, photolog-loving-teenager Florencia K (aka Florkey) to run for office ... God forbid!
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
About 2008 and Fresh Starts
For some odd reason, I think 2008 is going to be very different, in more ways than one. First, because I am days away from having my firstborn - a little girl. Second, because I have been taking the last few weeks to reflect upon my blogging activity and think about what I need to do to take it to the next level. Not that I am unsatisfied; quite the opposite in fact.
Too many things are going on in the country without us knowing; and the media are having an active role in showing the general population a certain aspect of the country that does not necessarily match the reality of it all. I have been thinking precisely about this: how to best shorten the distance between the reader and reality in this wonderful country.
Anyhow, this means there will probably be some changes to the blog in the upcoming weeks as I decide how it's best to see it through the year, and as I "merge it" with the Observador de Medios content (see links). Thanks for the patience, and tune in soon for more soon!
Too many things are going on in the country without us knowing; and the media are having an active role in showing the general population a certain aspect of the country that does not necessarily match the reality of it all. I have been thinking precisely about this: how to best shorten the distance between the reader and reality in this wonderful country.
Anyhow, this means there will probably be some changes to the blog in the upcoming weeks as I decide how it's best to see it through the year, and as I "merge it" with the Observador de Medios content (see links). Thanks for the patience, and tune in soon for more soon!
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Pacto Social in Danger # 1: Moyano
Yesterday. a warning was made to our new elected president. For whoever thought that this country and signing a Social Pact to appease the business community and the trade-unions, Monday November 12th marked the end of that belief as something easily achievable.
An interesting law was being discussed yesterday; one about a scoring system - much like there are in more civilized, developed and organized countries - whereby through a credit system you score "negative points" each time you make a serious traffic offense. Since the elimination of petty offenses from the code, this should have been a very quiet matter. It wasn't.
Transport trade unions - cabs, truckers and bus-drivers - apparently tried to enter Congress and show our lawmaker's what they would do about this matter, which they suddenly and after
months of lobbying, all of a sudden rejected. As they took matter into their hands, policemen reacted - some more forcefully than others - and it turned quickly into an all-out battle between union workers and cops.
The visible result: lots of flying rocks, more than 40 wounded - more cops than workers let it be said - and one cop separated from the force due to a movie depicting an "excessive use of force"against a manifester.
The aftermath: Moyano threatened to pull a
full-blown transport strike as a result of the "clash" between unionists and policemen. Kirchner blew a fuse and apparently had a very tough conversation with Moyano, who withdrew the strike but is now being planned for November 29th, it seems. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner did not intervene (as was expected, since she has not assumed her presidential duties yet).
The invisible result: Moyano is pushing the envelope trying to understand his limits - he has amassed a large amount of power and is seeking to understand where and when it is best deployed. If such a reaction happened after such a small conflict, one can only imagine the negotiating style that will accompany multi-year salary negotiations. Cristina is in for a big surprise if she expects Moyano to be tamed after her husband's first term.
God help us. We need all the help we can get.
An interesting law was being discussed yesterday; one about a scoring system - much like there are in more civilized, developed and organized countries - whereby through a credit system you score "negative points" each time you make a serious traffic offense. Since the elimination of petty offenses from the code, this should have been a very quiet matter. It wasn't.
Transport trade unions - cabs, truckers and bus-drivers - apparently tried to enter Congress and show our lawmaker's what they would do about this matter, which they suddenly and after
months of lobbying, all of a sudden rejected. As they took matter into their hands, policemen reacted - some more forcefully than others - and it turned quickly into an all-out battle between union workers and cops.The visible result: lots of flying rocks, more than 40 wounded - more cops than workers let it be said - and one cop separated from the force due to a movie depicting an "excessive use of force"against a manifester.
The aftermath: Moyano threatened to pull a
full-blown transport strike as a result of the "clash" between unionists and policemen. Kirchner blew a fuse and apparently had a very tough conversation with Moyano, who withdrew the strike but is now being planned for November 29th, it seems. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner did not intervene (as was expected, since she has not assumed her presidential duties yet).The invisible result: Moyano is pushing the envelope trying to understand his limits - he has amassed a large amount of power and is seeking to understand where and when it is best deployed. If such a reaction happened after such a small conflict, one can only imagine the negotiating style that will accompany multi-year salary negotiations. Cristina is in for a big surprise if she expects Moyano to be tamed after her husband's first term.
God help us. We need all the help we can get.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Sunday Headline News in Argentina: November 11th, 2007
And we're at the start of another interesting week in Argentina ... October was quite calm due to the elections, but November seems to be back with a vengeance! There are not only local problems (inflation, insecurity, protests), there is also conflict on the international front. As long as commodities keep high prices, the K Government will be happy and collecting billions of dollars more from export taxes ...
This weekend the top news spot was captured by International News this weekend - both showcasing Spain: while La Nación dealt with the sour exchange between Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Spain's Rey Juan Carlos. While Spain's PM Zapatero was giving his speech, he was rudely interrupted by Chavez who meant to attack Jose María Aznar, the former PM.
The King defended Aznar by telling Chavez to shut up, and left the conference room after the shouting contest.
Clarín chooses to go back to the paper-mill dispute between Argentina and Uruguay, and states that Spain wants both countries to re-ignite settlement talks. Not only did they not do so, but Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez went as far as to shut down the frontier at Gualeguaychu to prevent any Argentine attack on Botnia's recently-turned-operational mill. This conflict, which was 2006's top news, seems to want to carry itself over into 2008. By the lack of progress around it, it most certainly will be around for New Years'.
Secondary news at both papers were just that: secondary. La Nación had as second important story Clarin's first, and Clarin had La Nacion's first as second, so that made an interesting role-switching exercise. At La Nación, other news were about panic rooms, the local rugby championship and the Colón Theater's restoration. Clarín has many small side stories: the main ones are about the actual Economy Minister, who will apparently not be part of Cristina's cabinet, and a local druglord's confession, as well as Seferino Namuncurá's beatification process and soccer violence.
The summary of today's papers would be: if the Spanish fight that much, ¿how can you expect the apple (us Argentineans) to fall far from the tree? And don't get me into our Italian heritage ...
This weekend the top news spot was captured by International News this weekend - both showcasing Spain: while La Nación dealt with the sour exchange between Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Spain's Rey Juan Carlos. While Spain's PM Zapatero was giving his speech, he was rudely interrupted by Chavez who meant to attack Jose María Aznar, the former PM.
The King defended Aznar by telling Chavez to shut up, and left the conference room after the shouting contest.
Clarín chooses to go back to the paper-mill dispute between Argentina and Uruguay, and states that Spain wants both countries to re-ignite settlement talks. Not only did they not do so, but Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez went as far as to shut down the frontier at Gualeguaychu to prevent any Argentine attack on Botnia's recently-turned-operational mill. This conflict, which was 2006's top news, seems to want to carry itself over into 2008. By the lack of progress around it, it most certainly will be around for New Years'.
Secondary news at both papers were just that: secondary. La Nación had as second important story Clarin's first, and Clarin had La Nacion's first as second, so that made an interesting role-switching exercise. At La Nación, other news were about panic rooms, the local rugby championship and the Colón Theater's restoration. Clarín has many small side stories: the main ones are about the actual Economy Minister, who will apparently not be part of Cristina's cabinet, and a local druglord's confession, as well as Seferino Namuncurá's beatification process and soccer violence.
The summary of today's papers would be: if the Spanish fight that much, ¿how can you expect the apple (us Argentineans) to fall far from the tree? And don't get me into our Italian heritage ...
Monday, November 5, 2007
Sunday Headline News in Argentina: November 4th, 2007 - One Week with Madame President
Madame President has been elected for exactly a week today, and already she has shown how intelligent and wily she can be: she held several interviews with a wide array of reporters - almost all one-on-ones - and even with reporters she very recently criticized for being "opinionated" and reporting with a bias (La Nación Joaquin Morales Solá). She held her ground with most of them, although once or twice she showed her claws: when being asked why she dressed up, she answered "Do you want me to dress as if I were poor?" (btw, her husbands wealth declaration says he has approx. U$S 2 million in the bank plus 28 pieces of real estate ... not bad for a president), and when Marcelo Bonelli asked her about her relationship with the press she "told him off" like a first grade teacher to her student. We have four very interesting years ahead of us.
As for the papers today, they shared the main news as political: La Nación highlighted some newly-elected faces from the Province of Buenos Aires, and Clarín showcased a potential conflict between Carrió and Macri over the leadership of the opposition to the newly-elected President.
The truth is that, although both share the strong opposition to the leading party, their approaches and ideas today are quite
different and show significant gaps - which some consider unsurmountable. Be as it may, Macri will be leading the destinies of the district where Carrió won in last Sunday's presidential election, so the people who elected Macri must see something in Carrió and vice versa. This should help bridge some of the gaps in the not too distant future.
As for the other news, both papers showed Boca Juniors' victory over Racing Club on saturday, and while La Nación mentioned also the growing consumption of drugs and an incipient corruption scandal involving the Secretary of Transport; while Clarín settles for the Boca Juniors' victory and with an optimisting comment from Spain's Zapatero saying how Argentina is reaching the end of its nightmare ... for this week, enough said!
As for the papers today, they shared the main news as political: La Nación highlighted some newly-elected faces from the Province of Buenos Aires, and Clarín showcased a potential conflict between Carrió and Macri over the leadership of the opposition to the newly-elected President.
The truth is that, although both share the strong opposition to the leading party, their approaches and ideas today are quite
different and show significant gaps - which some consider unsurmountable. Be as it may, Macri will be leading the destinies of the district where Carrió won in last Sunday's presidential election, so the people who elected Macri must see something in Carrió and vice versa. This should help bridge some of the gaps in the not too distant future.
As for the other news, both papers showed Boca Juniors' victory over Racing Club on saturday, and while La Nación mentioned also the growing consumption of drugs and an incipient corruption scandal involving the Secretary of Transport; while Clarín settles for the Boca Juniors' victory and with an optimisting comment from Spain's Zapatero saying how Argentina is reaching the end of its nightmare ... for this week, enough said!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
