External Pressure, Internal Chaos

If ever there was one, the honeymoon is over for President Cristina Fernández.  In less than a year, she has managed to waste the (little?) political capital that her husband transferred along with the presidential band.  Far behind remain the times when the world looked up at her as a signal of changing times in Argentina, maybe even a maturity that the nigh-adolescent behavior that her husband often showed never allowed.  "She was the thinking one", said many and thought more.

Indeed, she turned out to be the thinking one - and the talking one.  Everything else was done by her husband, ex-President Néstor Kirchner.  The fiscal voracity they showed when they tried to raise farmer export taxes for the fifth time in as many years backfired violently - and turned people's sentiments into that of hatred and disgust (which any president must avoid).  Furthermore, the tinkering with inflation indices worsened and trust in the country dramatically fell - generating a capital flight only comparable to that of 2001.  Until this point, things were bad but Argentina suffered from a self-induced illness.

Little could the Kirchners imagine that the very same external economic conditions, which were undoubtedly the single most important factor that kept them in power, were about to change direction fiercely and mercilessly.  Along with the sub-prime crisis (shamelessly dubbed Jazz Effect by President Fernández), came the end of Argentina's good fortunes.  No longer could the government milk the export taxes, since commodity prices around the world were falling at unimaginable rates.  What now?

Fortunately, politics is not short in imagination.  Less than 60 days ago, the government decided unilaterally to nationalize the private pension system.  Granted, the system is less than 2 decades old and full of flaws - but certainly there are other remedies before cutting the limb altogether.  Wrokers's reactions, however, were not as organized or as noisy as the farmers' - after all, people have to go to work and lack the organizational structure of the 4 national agricultural entities.  The lower chamber passed the law very easily into the Senate, who have a very tough job, for the second time this year ...


A rising dollar, falling employment, falling commodity prices, worsened public sentiment ... all seem a well too common picture for old timers, and the outcome is all too familiar and lacking serious alternatives. While the world tightens its belt, Argentineans are finally realizing that the Kirchners are very efficient riding good waves, but are not fit to captain stormy waters ... and stormy waters, these definitely are.

Global Crisis, Local Difficulties

For the first time in the Kirchner era, the Ks will have to face a seriously adverse external economic environment.  Although they have tried to deny it once and again, twice in the past 10 days has Mme President said, in her shy and subtle terms, that Argentina will be affected by the global credit crisis.

This is a new phenomenon and as such, has had a double effect: one, the opposition is gathering and waiting with great expectation the outcome of the crisis and its impact on inmediate government strength (heavily impacted after the tax revolvt which lasted March thru July), and second, the Ks themselves are wondering how good a storm pilot either of them is!  This is because the external conditions which Mr. Kirchner inherited from his then-godfather-now-adversary Duhalde had been the most favorable in more than 50 years - and a downturn was not in any of their plans.

This will place extra pressure on the fiscal accounts, bearing in mind that 2009 is an election year and as such, there is increasing pressure to release funds instead of increasing savings on public works.  This, again, will be a stress test to the Ks real political power, that had virtually not been challenged since the farmer's revolt.

2008 will be a make or break year for the Kirchners: if they survive a year with 4 months of tax revolts and now extremely adverse (and worsening) economic conditions, it might mean they will be around for a while.  If the response to the global crisis - which due to the lack of credit in Argentina will be mainly felt through a fall on export demand and an increase of imports - is not as sound and ccoherent as expected, we might well end up with the longest lame (female) duck in history ...

The Story Behind the Suitcase

As in every gangster story, there had to be a mysterious suitcase with an unusually large amount of money. What seemed like a routine baggage check (done to everyone who enters the country), ended with the discovery of a suitcase containing U$S 800.000 that Mr. Guido Antonini Wilson was bringing into Argentina.  Since noone is allowed to bring into the country more than U$S 10.000, the money was confiscated until the matter was settled.  And settled is one thing it was not: in fact, the suitcase affaire (locally referred to as the valijagate) might well prove to be Mrs. Kirchner's political undoing, since the money was allegedly used for dirty campaign financing (and it was recently said that it was one of many suitcases entering the country coming from the same plane, in fact, that there were other U$S 4.200.000 travelling on that plane).

It is impossible to just how worried Mrs. Kirchner is at this moment; she has proven to put up a very good poker face for some tough affairs which her administration has undergone.  Reporters are very cautious, but firmly following trails to figure out exactly where the valijagate points.  This week, Mr. Antonini will be testifying and maybe confessing some very dark secrets regarding the protection that Claudio Uberti (former Gov't staff, fired due to this affair) promised him as he was discovered at the airport.  Everything points to dealings between Venezuelan and Argentinean government and, as was mentioned, illegal campaign money.  Phone traces show that Uberti called the Olivos presidential residence several times that morning, presumably asking for instructions on how to proceed in light of the unplanned baggage discovery.  At a time of very low popularity and much public concern about inflation and insecurity, a corruption scheme like this could be the final nail on the coffin of an already (and far too early!) moribund administration.

Nestor Kirchner assumed many liberties during his term; more than the 22% vote he obtained in 2003 duly granted him.  However, there was almost no talk of corruption during his term in office, except some scattered second-rate issues (Skanska kickbacks being the most noteworthy).  Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has not been that lucky: in less than a year in office, she has had to tackle the popularity-devastating farmer tax revolt, which ended unfavorably for the government in spite of an unnecessarily long fight.  Now, the valijagate might tie in to her very campaign financing, and that may prove too strained a test for her to survive.

Argentinean citizens don´t have the same tolerance as they did in the 2003-2007 post crisis period.  How will this unfold?  Will a dirty financing scheme be uncovered and, if so, what are its implications for the President?  If Mrs Kirchner is ousted, is anyone ready to accept the responsibility and do the dirty part of the job that remains to be done (freeing markets, truing up inflation, ending insecurity, etc.)?

It's amazing how much that suitcase resembles Pandora's Box ...

Political Default in Argentina

Recent events in the country (and outside the country, but affecting it) create a rather bleak outlook for Argentina. In the eyes of Walter Molano, head of BCP Securities, the Kirchners will be ousted from their "reign", sooner or later.

When there is a lot of talk about a crisis - and there is starting to be a whole lot in Argentina - it is a bad omen. Self-fulfilling prophecies have a tendency to be ... self-fulfilling. Such talk has some strong arguments for it:

1. Argentina's public expenditure is not as controlled as it should be (energy and transport subsidies have grown at 70%+ rates per annum and are only now starting to be deactivated. in a process that could take months if not years).
2. Inflation is looming out of control, and the Statistics Institute (Indec), has been intervenes by a government court-jester who insists on amusing the Ks with laughable inflation rates. All credibility has been lost as far as any official statistic goes, and this hurts Argentina in every imaginable way (by the way, the tinkering with inflation also saves billions worth of interests on inflation-adjusted bonds).
3. Commodity prices are errant. Recent ebbs in international prices have caused many a scare locally. Even though the export-tax increases did not go through, the government still needs its fix from existing export taxes to finance the spending charade and to keep the dollar anchor.
4. Competitiveness has not been a priority since th default, and industrialists rely on a cheap dollar to export (as opposed to relying on it to enter a market, and then work on how to be more competitive, like Brasil has done). We are back to Convertibility at a different peg.
5. Argentina has no credit. Venezuela's Chavez has been kind enough to buy our bonds at exhorbitant rates (from 2x to 3x of IMF rates but hey, at least they don't tell us what to do!) and has lately lost some of his magic due to instant trading in the secondary market, resulting in a flood of bonds being sold and their attractiveness falling rapidly.
6. Insecurity has become the #1 media event after the export-tax battle epic conclusion, and a feeling of defenselessness is starting to creep into everyone's sheets at night.
   

But, most importantly, the mood on the street is different. People smile less. The 4-month export-tax battle, full of useless lies and pointless bickering, have served only one purpose: to show the people - far too soon - the President's real colors.

How long will this last? That much remains to be seen. Argentina's numbers (those that can be trusted, if any), show good vital signs. 6 years ago, Argentina defaulted on its debt. During 2008, the default has been political, and the ruling party is to blame entirely. If, like Mr Bolano suggests, they are ousted from government, however hard they try, they will have no one to blame other than themselves.

Her problems are ... that big.

Back to our "Boring" Sunday Headline News - July 20th 2008

The Farmer/Government conflict is over ... or is it?

Clarin and La Nación, Argentina´s largest papers, are still covering the fallout of the conflict - which is, for Cristina Kirchner and the FPV (Frente para la Victoria) bunch, not over yet.

In La Nación, Province of Buenos Aires governor (and ex-VP alongside hard-line Néstor Kirchner) is asking for "self-criticism" amidst the official radio silence on the conflict's resolution last week. The Senate's vote and later derogation of Resolution 125 marked the long-awaited victory for the farmers but opened a "Now what?" phase which has been exacerbated by the President´s silence regarding this matter.

The second news-making event is a calculation of our National Savings if subsidies were cut. Ex-President Kirchner elaborated and intricate network of subsidies for basically all economic activities for which prices were "frozen" (electricity, gas, water, bus, trains, subways ...). Untangling it without setting free the seven-headed beat of inflation will be no easy task, especially when there is no real conviction of even believing that inflation is a problem to start with.

The third piece of news is a Tango show in La Boca ...

Clarín is also dealing with thje fallout of the conflict. Two Cobos followes, who had a job in the government, were apparently asked to resign. This has been one of many official measures taken from the government to ensure VP Cobos feals the heat of his decision. Last week, when he asked for the Tango 02 (the equivalent of the Air Force 1 for the VP) to head home to Mendoza (Argentinean province neiughboring Chile), his request was denied by Oscar Parilli, the President's secretary. He has gotten harrassed by FPV supported and told off by countless politicians. The crisis which he has set off in the government will only be properly measured in a few months.

Although he has denied resigning, I speculate he will run for a Senator post next year; this would give him an exit with some dignity and allow the President to save face after having her VP issue the decisive vote
against her export-tax bill.

Other news refer to Martín del Potro´s recent tennis victories.

(La Nación cover is not reproduced because the new brilliant online identity prevents me from copy-pasting the cover).

Reality: Expect the Unexpected

Argentina is the country of the unexpected.


In 2003, when Menem was the front-runner in the presidential elections and favorite for his third term. However, days before the ballotage (second round), he surprisingly pulled out of the race, leaving Nestor Kirchner, an unknown provincial governor, a job as President with 22% of votes.

A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but one truth remains: it is almost impossible to predict what might happen in Argentine politics. This week's Senate vote on Resolution 125, regulating the March 11th increase on soybean export tariffs was not the exception.

4 months of escalating conflict between the agricultural sector and the government had been enough and no solution was forecoming: therefore, Julio Cobos; the vicepresident from the traditional Radical party turned Kirchner follower, prompted Mme President to send the resolution to Congress. Last week, a tight battle was fought and the Kirchners won 129 to 122 in the Lower Chamber.

Before the vote in the Senate, both groups rallied their supporters (ex-President Kirchner had less than 100k supporters in Congress, the farmers had 200k plus in Palermo, a high-end neighborhood north of the city), and while the farmers won the street, another narrow victory was discounted by the Kirchners. Little did they know that, not only would they not win, but they would loose under Vice-President Cobos' "un-tying" vote (voting had ended 36 to 36, and the Constitution said in this case the President of the Senate would vote and untie).

24 hours earlier, ex-President Kirchner promised in his rally that the Peronist party would respect the Senate's decision, prompting the farmers to do the same (and of course discounting a sure victory).


As luck would have it, at 4am and after 18 hours of discussions, things were tied in the Upper Chamber, and the hour of truth came for Cobos. Would he prioritize his standing and point of view, or would he vote as his running mate and party? He voted with his heart, and the unexpected became part of history once again. Today, the resolution was revoked and tax levels returned to March 10th levels (until a new plan is put in place, as a result of a reasonable and transparent process and not as a decree).

President Cristina Fernandez and ex-President Kirchner had vowed to respect the Senate's decision, and they had resolved against the Resolution. All of the political capital spent during the 127 days of conflict had been uselessly dilapidated. Society - and Congress - had put a large STOP sign in front of the Kirchners and provided the largest political defeat since 2003. She stands weakened now but, what seems worse, the opposition stands tall. Damage control may last as long as the end of 2009, when partial Congress elections will be held, and the opposition will most likely recover seats from the Kirchners.

Then again, always expect the unexpected ...

Pot-Banging, Reloaded. Opposition: The Return

Argentina is awake again.

Mrs. President, Please listen to the people. No president, democratically elected or not, has done well without listening to the people (who put them there in the first place!).

What started 97 days ago as a tax revolt has turned into a situation of absolute political upheaval. Not only, as we mentioned before, has the Government succeeded in creating a neew and very popular political figure by the name of Eduardo de Angeli, but they also apparently awoke the slumbering opposition.

Eduardo Duhalde, the storm-riding president in charge of the devaluation and pesification of the economy back in 2002, has returned from the land of the politically dead. He was Kirchner's main sponsor in the 2003 election (eager to beat Menem), only to realize that his political protegé discarded him as soon as he humanly could. To make matters worse, Cristina K humiliated Chiche Duhalde, Eduardo's wife, at local legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires.

What does he want? Simply put, he wants to fill the void that the K Clan has created between themselves, their court-jesters (many are named Fernández, also) and the people who elected them.

Why does he think he can succeed? Cristina and Néstor Kirchner's public image has falled at record lows; maybe even past the point of no-political-return. A couple of years ago, Duhalde chose to go out silently, and lurk in the shadows until the time was right.

Guess what? The time is right. He is gathering strong opposition voices - from within the hsitorical Peronist party, which Kirchner leads but from which he has ideologically digressed - and could form an interesting coalition for 2009's legislative elections.

I only have one - very premature - doubt in my mind at this point. History has proven that the Peronist party has been the only party that could finish their terms since the return of democracy (Alfonsín, 1989; De La Rúa, 2001). If that is a fact, and if it is also a fact that Mauricio Macri (PRO's recently elected Buenos Aires Mayor) is the strongest pre-presidential candidate for 2011 - where will they find common ground to join forces? Will they? Could Macri run for office without a national party infrastructure? Can Duhalde win without a popular candidate?

I grin with anticipation. Politics is the art of the possible - and the unexpected.

Creating a New Blumberg

With its attack on farmers, the government has once again generated the proper atmosphere for the emergence of what I like to call "situational leaders". Juan Carlos Blumberg, the father of a kidnapped and murdered teenager, became the flagship of the fight that society led against insecurity during Nestor Kirchner's government.

Alfredo de Angelis, a rural director for the Argentine Agricultural Federation (FAA), has jumped to stardom due to the government conflict with his sector. He was quite outspoken about another lockout once the fragile negotiation period with the government is over, and the want to see him behind bars. He says that his powers that be. He says that the campo put him where he is, much like Blumberg blamed his stardom on his son's murder - quite regretfully. De Angeli has been defended by the opposing parties, who are trying to avoid the conflict from turning more sour than it currently is.

The main issue is that the government, with its unpopular measures, in a way has set the stage for the emergence of these accidental heroes. Blumberg came onto the scene a few years ago promising he would not run for office, even though he was courted and enticed by many, and was successful for as long as he stayed independent, representing a claim society considered genuine and truthful. He had the credibility the government lacked and showed the frustration and pain only someone who has been there could. As soon as he accepted a candidacy, he was doomed; his fake engineer title was investigated and he was ridiculized publicly for not being what he said he was. His credibility was lost and so was his appeal to the masses.

De Angelis' appearance is quite different: he appears in an already heavily politicized environment and was outwardly attacked by the ruling party. He is being victimized and could be a possible scapegoat for the failure to properly address the export tax conflict. His protagonism could turn to shreds in the upcoming days or - if the government gets its way - his incarceration could be seen as the martyrdom needed to truly become a political actor in the rural scene (as well as in the union scene, where he already has his place).

Be it how it may, the government has once again planted the seeds of its undoing. By heavily antagonizing a large sector of society and miscalculating the popular reaction to its measures, it has allowed figure as De Angelis and Blumberg to steal protagonism, even if it may only be for their 15 minutes of fame.

The headache for the government for sure will last longer than that.

To Build a Future We Must Put Our Past Behind

Our 200th anniversary as a Nation is approaching, and we will be missing a unique chance to reinvent ourselves. It is a true academic case-study how Argentina has fallen from one of the sweet spots in the country development grid to a below-average country, with inflation, instability, political uncertainty, a restricted and introverted economy and questionable friends. Chile, Mexico and Brazil have taken the long and painful way, and we thought we could take the shortcut to regain our status (1 to 1 convertibility) and now an iron fist rule to keep everyone in line (3 to 1 convertibility).

Never has the country had such favorable external conditions; since 2003, the world has smiled to Argentina and given us a chance to shine again. However, our political leaders have once and again decided to shrug away from that and preferred an isolationist approach (much like their more famous political ancestor, Juan Domingo Perón) and the debt has not paid off. In these past five years, Argentina has "gotten back up", much like a sick person does after being in bed for a month. We have never really gotten out of the hospital, though. And both Nestor and Cristina Kirchner would rather have a country isolated from the outside world, safe among ourselves and indifferent to the rest. To their credit, they learnt that Menem's overtly zealous external policies might have caused some harm - our indebtedness and vulnerability to financial markets made us a sitting duck during any crisis. As it usually happens, the pendulum has swung all the way to the opposite end; and there is no sign anyone is looking to find convenient middle ground for our aspirations to become a serious nation Again.

President Cristina Fernández, right before the elections, generated some positive expectations as someone whose priorities would be to reinsert Argentina in the world while being a more moderate peronist ruler. She has proved everyone wrong is just 100 days, and has quickly but surely dilapidated a large amount of political capital that not only she but also her husband spent 5 years to build. To nobody's surprise, the farming conflict - still unresolved - has stirred criticisms right and left but, more importantly, and a side effect nobody expected, has awakened voiced of dissent from within the ruling party. Suddenly, some province governors speak out against the excessive accumulation of power from the central government. Suddenly, "has been" politicians feel safer to speak out and regain ground in the political arena. What if they got organized and form an opposing coalition for next elections?

This seems like a far off dream. Argentina has no solid national oppostion, and the only one to gain is the President and her husband, who want to alternate in power until retirement (or until son or daughter enter the political world). The Kirchners have a habit of ruling with an iron fist in the Province of Santa Cruz. Argentina is not the Province of Santa Cruz, as Mme. President has learnt the hard way, and the will not stand by to watch her boss everyone around, pointing fingers and uncovering imaginary plots to destabilize her.

She is playing with fire when she refers to recent public manifestations as reminders of the 1976 military coup. She is very vindictive and constantly reminds us that she in on the side of the montoneros who stood up to the military and the Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo who saw their sons fight and lose a dirty guerilla war. It would be of much help for Mme. President to look around and see how Mexico, Chile and Brazil have dealt with similar issues. Constant reminders the way to go. Forgetting is not an option either. Again, a middle ground is always preferred under such nerve-racking issues: assume our history, make sure we don't make the same mistake again and move on.

It is the only way to regain lost ground. No more proud speeches. No more threats. No more obstacles to growth and no more illegitimate taxes. Less fiction would help us build a better reality.

photo: courtesy of the web!

Excellent Video (in Spanish) : Argentina is Definitely Fiction