In 2003, when Menem was the front-runner in the presidential elections and favorite for his third term. However, days before the ballotage (second round), he surprisingly pulled out of the race, leaving Nestor Kirchner, an unknown provincial governor, a job as President with 22% of votes.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then, but one truth remains: it is almost impossible to predict what might happen in Argentine politics. This week's Senate vote on Resolution 125, regulating the March 11th increase on soybean export tariffs was not the exception.
4 months of escalating conflict between the agricultural sector and the government had been enough and no solution was forecoming: therefore, Julio Cobos; the vicepresident from the traditional Radical party turned Kirchner follower, prompted Mme President to send the resolution to Congress. Last week, a tight battle was fought and the Kirchners won 129 to 122 in the Lower Chamber.Before the vote in the Senate, both groups rallied their supporters (ex-President Kirchner had less than 100k supporters in Congress, the farmers had 200k plus in Palermo, a high-end neighborhood north of the city), and while the farmers won the street, another narrow victory was discounted by the Kirchners. Little did they know that, not only would they not win, but they would loose under Vice-President Cobos' "un-tying" vote (voting had ended 36 to 36, and the Constitution said in this case the President of the Senate would vote and untie).
24 hours earlier, ex-President Kirchner promised in his rally that the Peronist party would respect the Senate's decision, prompting the farmers to do the same (and of course discounting a sure victory).
As luck would have it, at 4am and after 18 hours of discussions, things were tied in the Upper Chamber, and the hour of truth came for Cobos. Would he prioritize his standing and point of view, or would he vote as his running mate and party? He voted with his heart, and the unexpected became part of history once again. Today, the resolution was revoked and tax levels returned to March 10th levels (until a new plan is put in place, as a result of a reasonable and transparent process and not as a decree).
President Cristina Fernandez and ex-President Kirchner had vowed to respect the Senate's decision, and they had resolved against the Resolution. All of the political capital spent during the 127 days of conflict had been uselessly dilapidated. Society - and Congress - had put a large STOP sign in front of the Kirchners and provided the largest political defeat since 2003. She stands weakened now but, what seems worse, the opposition stands tall. Damage control may last as long as the end of 2009, when partial Congress elections will be held, and the opposition will most likely recover seats from the Kirchners.
Then again, always expect the unexpected ...
