Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Pot-Banging, Reloaded. Opposition: The Return

Argentina is awake again.

Mrs. President, Please listen to the people. No president, democratically elected or not, has done well without listening to the people (who put them there in the first place!).

What started 97 days ago as a tax revolt has turned into a situation of absolute political upheaval. Not only, as we mentioned before, has the Government succeeded in creating a neew and very popular political figure by the name of Eduardo de Angeli, but they also apparently awoke the slumbering opposition.

Eduardo Duhalde, the storm-riding president in charge of the devaluation and pesification of the economy back in 2002, has returned from the land of the politically dead. He was Kirchner's main sponsor in the 2003 election (eager to beat Menem), only to realize that his political protegé discarded him as soon as he humanly could. To make matters worse, Cristina K humiliated Chiche Duhalde, Eduardo's wife, at local legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires.

What does he want? Simply put, he wants to fill the void that the K Clan has created between themselves, their court-jesters (many are named Fernández, also) and the people who elected them.

Why does he think he can succeed?
Cristina and Néstor Kirchner's public image has falled at record lows; maybe even past the point of no-political-return. A couple of years ago, Duhalde chose to go out silently, and lurk in the shadows until the time was right.

Guess what? The time is right. He is gathering strong opposition voices - from within the hsitorical Peronist party, which Kirchner leads but from which he has ideologically digressed - and could form an interesting coalition for 2009's legislative elections.

I only have one - very premature - doubt in my mind at this point. History has proven that the Peronist party has been the only party that could finish their terms since the return of democracy (Alfonsín, 1989; De La Rúa, 2001). If that is a fact, and if it is also a fact that Mauricio Macri (PRO's recently elected Buenos Aires Mayor) is the strongest pre-presidential candidate for 2011 - where will they find common ground to join forces? Will they? Could Macri run for office without a national party infrastructure? Can Duhalde win without a popular candidate?

I grin with anticipation. Politics is the art of the possible - and the unexpected.